Oscars: The Math Predicts ‘A Fantastic Woman’ Foreign-Language Film Win

‘A Fantastic Woman’

Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

The countdown to Sunday’s 90th Oscar ceremonies continues. Yesterday, I released Oscar percentages in the top eight categories: the mathematical chance that each nominee for best picture, best director, the four acting categories, and two screenplay categories will win awards on March 4.

Today, I present part two of this three-part series, with mathematical odds in seven more races. The Shape of Water, which is the weak frontrunner for best picture and strong frontrunner for best director, again leads in two categories in today’s installment, but neither is a sure thing. The only truly safe bet among any of these categories is the race for best animated feature.

Tomorrow, this series will include with a look at the remaining categories.

Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) uses math to predict and write about the Oscars for The Hollywood Reporter. He recently graduated from Harvard with a degree in applied math, and he now works as a baseball analyst for the Los Angeles Dodgers.